#247: Strategic Inaction, Satisficing & the Decision Ownership Principle

3 Ideas in 2 Minutes on Decision-Making Advice

I. Strategic Inaction

Strategic Inaction is the principle behind what late investor Charlie Munger called the “Too Hard Pile”:

I have a pile on my desk that solves most of my problems. It’s called the Too Hard Pile. And I just keep shifting things to the Too Hard Pile.

Every once in a while, an easy decision comes along and I make it. That’s my system. Everything goes to the Too Hard Pile — except for a few easy decisions which I make promptly.

It sounds like he was joking, but Munger was completely serious. The strategy is to deliberately avoid overly complex decisions while acting on the few clear, easy opportunities. It’s a focus on high-quality decisions over sheer activity. And maybe, with more skill and experience, the Too Hard Pile one day solves itself.

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II. Satisficing

You don’t always get the optimal solution out of a decision. And by “not always”, I mean never. Pretty much. That’s why it’s useful to know about Satisficing.

This is a decision-making strategy that aims for a satisfactory or adequate result, rather than the optimal solution. It’s often used because aiming for the optimal solution may mean the expenditure of time, energy and resources (that sometimes you cannot afford). It can also be the case that the optimal solution is not identifiable — i.e. that finding the absolute best of all possible options is so complex that it can’t be done — or in some cases, it is a means of maintaining group status quo (i.e. finding a solution that everyone can agree to).

—A Simple Handbook for Non-Traditional Red Teaming

Sometimes, the issue is that there are only bad options, as this exchange from the espionage thriller Argo (2012) illustrates. The movie is about the CIA trying to exfiltrate Americans out of Iran in the late 1970s by posing as filmmakers shooting a science fiction movie. This is how they pitch the idea to the director of the CIA:

“There are only bad options. It’s about finding the best one.”

“You don’t have a better bad idea than this?”

“This is the best bad idea we have, sir. By far.”

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III. Decision Ownership Principle

When making decisions on someone else’s advice, it pays to remember the Decision Ownership Principle. Variations of this idea have been echoed by thinkers like Richard Feynman, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Seneca:

You’re under no obligation to base your decisions on the advice of those people who don’t have to deal with the results.

So don’t blindly trust advice from some bloke penning newsletters about decision-making on the other side of the world. He won’t have to live with the consequences.

But hey — please subscribe. :) 🐘

Have a great week,

Chris
themindcollection.com