#120: Cassandra Complex, Perverse Incentives & Best Performer Advice
3 Ideas in 2 Minutes on Giving Advice
I. Cassandra Complex
If you’re the kind of person who has lots of I-told-you-so-moments, you’ll relate to Cassandra. In Greek mythology, Cassandra was a Trojan priestess who possessed the gift of foresight. Her predictions, such as the destruction of Troy, turned out to be true. Without fail.
Unfortunately, nobody ever believed her. Cassandra’s predictions were reliably ignored or dismissed. Known as the Cassandra Complex, the metaphor is a staunch reminder that being right is not enough. You also have to be smart about giving advice and incentivising people.
II. Perverse Incentives
Incentives motivate us to do things we wouldn’t do otherwise. Perverse Incentives, however, have the opposite effect of what the motivator had in mind. As such it’s a type of unintended negative consequence. One of the most infamous examples is the story about the Hanoi Rat Bounty.
During the French colonial rule of Vietnam, the Governor-General tried to get a rat plague under control. He incentivised the killing of rats with a bounty. Due to health concerns, people were told to hand in only the rats’ tails as evidence of a successful rodent kill. This motivated the locals to catch the rats, cut off their tails and release the rodents again.
Needless to say, this perverse incentive did not have the desired effect. Reportedly, the plague got even worse. If these kinds of stories interest you, check out my essay on the Cobra Effect.
III. Best Performer Advice
So who should you take advice from if Cassandra isn’t around? The obvious answer would be to ask the high-performers in any given domain. However, according to researchers David E. Levari et al., Best Performer Advice may be bad advice. In a series of studies, they found:
The best performers did not give better advice, but they did give more of it, and participants apparently mistook quantity for quality. These studies suggest that performing and advising may often be unrelated skills and that in at least some domains, people may overvalue advice from top performers.
Source: Tips From the Top
What great advice from a top-performing scientist. It seems like BJJ coach John Danaher (3 Ideas in 2 Minutes #108) was right: “Don't do what people say, do what the best do.” 🐘
Have a great week,
Chris
themindcollection.com
P.S.: I’ve had some fun putting together 9 Witty Variations of the Trolley Problem Meme.