#147: Engineered Serendipity, Epistemic Luck & the Second Arrow Problem
#147: Engineered Serendipity, Epistemic Luck & the Second Arrow Problem
3 Ideas in 2 Minutes on Luck and Success
I. Engineered Serendipity
Engineered Serendipity merges two seemingly contradictory things: the planned (engineering) and the unplanned (serendipity). It hinges on the idea that “luck” can be helped along by creating an environment conducive to fortunate events. When researching the phenomenon in the context of the workplace and conferences, social scientists found a formula for creating serendipitous encounters:
[A]n effective encounter depends on the degree of common knowledge shared by the individuals. We find that scientists who attend the same conference are more likely to learn from each other and collaborate effectively when they have some common interests, but may view each other competitively when they work in the same field. Hence, when designing opportunities for face-to-face interactions, managers should consider knowledge similarity as a criteria for fostering more productive exchanges.
—Jacqueline N. Lane et al., Engineering Serendipity
The concept is reminiscent of Richard Wiseman’s work on The Luck Factor. The experimental psychologist suggested that luck is the result of our thoughts, habits and behaviours and therefore a learnable skill.
II. Epistemic Luck
Epistemology is a branch of philosophy concerned with how we know what we know and why we believe what we believe. The concept of Epistemic Luck suggests that the answer to those questions might be arbitrary.
Epistemic luck is a generic notion used to describe any of a number of ways in which it can be accidental, coincidental, or fortuitous that a person has a true belief. For example, one can form a true belief as a result of a lucky guess, as when one believes through guesswork that “C” is the right answer to a multiple-choice question and one’s belief just happens to be correct. One can form a true belief via wishful thinking; for example, an optimist’s belief that it will not rain may luckily turn out to be correct, despite forecasts for heavy rain all day. One can reason from false premises to a belief that coincidentally happens to be true.
You could’ve been born somewhere else, grew up with other friends and subscribed to a different newsletter. So how do our precious beliefs not come down to anything but sheer luck?
III. Second Arrow Problem
You can’t avoid misfortune. But you can choose how you react to it. The Second Arrow Problem is a Buddhist analogy about what happens when adversity strikes. Two arrows fly our way:
Buddha once asked a student: “If a person is struck by an arrow, is it painful?”
The student replied: “It is.”
Buddha then asked: “If the person is struck by a second arrow, is that even more painful?”
The student replied: “It is.”
Buddha then explained: “In life, we cannot always control the first arrow. However, the second arrow is our reaction to the first.
With the second arrow comes the possibility of choice.
🐘
Have a great week,
Chris
themindcollection.com