#126: Rally Around the Flag Effect, Madman Theory & the Fisher Protocol

3 Ideas in 2 Minutes on Not-So-Strong Leadership

I. Rally Around the Flag Effect

Imagine a nation in times of a national emergency or crisis such as the outbreak of a war. During such times, the Rally Around the Flag Effect suggests that the approval rating of a political leader will surge; albeit for a short time only.

The concept was coined by political scientist John Mueller in his 1970 paper on Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson. According to Mueller, the effect can arise from an event that is (1) “international” (2) “involves the United States and particularly the President directly” and (3) is "specific, dramatic, and sharply focused”.

A crisis can be a unifying event. It reminds people of their shared values. And what better place to metaphorically rally around than the country’s national symbol? Unfortunately, this effect also creates a perverse incentive for politicians to manufacture a crisis to improve low approval ratings.

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II. Madman Theory

The Madman Theory is a negotiation tactic that goes back to Niccolò Machiavelli. Sometimes, the Italian diplomat suggested, it’s "a very wise thing to simulate madness". The concept was popularised by Richard Nixon who explained it to his chief of staff Bob Haldeman like this:

I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that, "for God's sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry — and he has his hand on the nuclear button" and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.

—Bob Haldeman, The Ends of Power

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III. Fisher Protocol

What would it feel like to greenlight a nuclear strike? The decision to kill millions of innocent people should not be taken lightly. The emphasis here is on should. Because leaders can be surprisingly detached from the consequences of their decisions. In 1981, Harvard Law School professor and negotiation expert Roger Fisher addressed this problem in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

The Fisher Protocol suggested implanting the nuclear codes inside the body of a volunteer accompanying the President. To get to the codes and launch a strike, the President would be forced to confront the reality of death. How? By taking the volunteer’s standard-issue butcher knife and cutting the codes out of his aide.

To learn more about this unusual solution, including what Fisher’s friends at the Pentagon had to say about his idea, check out my latest essay The Fisher Protocol: How to Prevent Disastrous Decisions. 🐘

Have a great week,

Chris
themindcollection.com