#215: Hype Cycle, Osborne Effect & the Black Ball Hypothesis
3 Ideas in 2 Minutes on Thinking About Innovation
I. Hype Cycle
The Hype Cycle, popularized by the American consultancy Gartner, charts a technological innovation’s journey from initial buzz to maturity and mainstream adoption. It comes in five phases:
Innovation Trigger: A breakthrough or innovation sparks interest and gets traction, often with little proof of viability or practicality yet.
Peak of Inflated Expectations: The hype surges as excitement builds. It’s fueled by bold claims and early successes, but also failures.
Trough of Disillusionment: Reality sets in. Limitations get exposed, which leads to disappointment and waning attention. Only some providers survive.
Slope of Enlightenment: Steady progress emerges as the technology’s real benefits are understood and refined through practical use.
Plateau of Productivity: Eventually, the technology matures. It becomes widely accepted and delivers value more reliably, leading to mainstream adoption.
Take, for example, the gradual adoption of electronic mail. Instead of sending your trusted pigeon, would you use email if it were even more cumbersome and only delivered some of the time? Technology is only widely adopted when it works. But it’s a long way from the initial idea to a refined and reliable product.
The Hype Cycle helps predict and understand the stages a technology goes through, guiding expectations and decisions when it comes to the next big thing.
Source: The Decision Book
II. Osborne Effect
Beware of the Osborne Effect. Let’s say you’ve achieved the Plateau of Productivity with a terrific product. Innovation doesn’t stop, and you soon have a new, even better version. You can’t wait to announce it so your customers have something to look forward to. But maybe you announced too soon.
The Osborne Effect occurs when a company announces a future product too early, thereby killing sales of its current, soon-to-be-obsolete one. The social phenomenon is named after Osborne Computer Corporation, which revealed its next model in 1983 while still selling the old one. This caused customers to wait, sales to crash, and the company to go bankrupt.
👉 It’s a great example of those unexpected negative consequences I’ve written about.
III. Black Ball Hypothesis
Are there any downsides to progress, innovation and new technologies? The Black Ball Hypothesis (aka Vulnerable World Hypothesis) suggests that one day we might find out the hard way. It conceptualises human endeavour and discovery as “a process of pulling balls out of a giant urn”.
Now, what if the urn contained a few metaphorical black balls, namely a discovery, idea or technology that almost certainly leads to the destruction of the world as we know it?
One of the most terrifying scenarios is probably the idea of “easy nukes”. Imagine a technology that would allow anyone to assemble a functioning atomic bomb in their basement, made out of parts you get in every supermarket.
👉 Taken from my article about 25 More Interesting Concepts to Help You Make Sense of the World. 🐘
Have a great week,
Chris
themindcollection.com